Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd12457edd008b96cb6698cc60159610f2a25a333cf466e24343f397d57473993
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 159.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes | 35c | 140.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 46c | 140.77$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 127.94$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 119.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x393e…b2f0backed No | 73c | 105.7$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 82.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 65c | 77.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 59c | 69.48$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 50c | 60.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 25c | 58.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 57.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 67c | 53.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 59c | 53.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 52.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 40c | 43.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 42c | 42.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 63c | 40.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 60c | 38.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 68c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 36.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 40c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 34.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 35c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904c…4172backed No | 66c | 33.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 72c | 26.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 70c | 25.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 66c | 22.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed8…cad8backed No | 68c | 21.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…7ef6backed No | 71c | 20.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 116 | 70.7%82 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 70c | 20.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 63c | 20.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 61c | 18.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe805…e416backed No | 70c | 14.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 84°F or higher on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on May 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.