Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30975b57e781343b37937117e3f22837892a417432d1382f7168a644aa5c2c15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,121
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,005
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,121 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cd1…3257backed Yes | 63c | 341.91$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.91 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 63c | 318.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.12 | 463 | 56.4%261 W · 202 L | +54.6wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 194.07$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.97 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 41c | 174.75$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.56 | 4,665 | 26.6%1,242 W · 3,423 L | +65.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 34c | 158.16$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.27 | 624 | 22.4%140 W · 484 L | -29.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked Yes | 59c | 156.8$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.14 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 19c | 144.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 10c | 132.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.64 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 30c | 132.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.68 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,655 | 47.3%1,257 W · 1,398 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 70c | 119.95$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.96 | 1,464 | 58.5%857 W · 607 L | +71.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 53c | 119.73$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.48 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b5…4558backed No | 47c | 117$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.71 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 19c | 110.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 4,136 | 56.6%2,343 W · 1,793 L | +50.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 45c | 100.37$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 65c | 96.24$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 681 | 50.5%344 W · 337 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 70c | 94.45$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 435 | 50.6%220 W · 215 L | +22.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 82.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.33 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 41c | 74.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 3,686 | 33.8%1,246 W · 2,440 L | -190.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 57c | 61.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 575 | 54.3%312 W · 263 L | +16.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 78c | 54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe25a…31c4backed Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,028 | 31.3%949 W · 2,079 L | +40.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5616…61c1backed No | 39c | 45.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.29per pick | 38cpaid | -87%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,275 | 47.6%607 W · 668 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 58c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 31c | 36.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 3,050 | 40.5%1,235 W · 1,815 L | -121.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 37c | 30.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 34c | 29.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +10.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e2…86c6backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfeb…a172backed Yes | 69c | 28.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 51c | 28.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 27.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 5,161 | 68.3%3,525 W · 1,636 L | +71.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 25.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 69c | 24.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 195 | 61.5%120 W · 75 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec87…43f9backed No | 79c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 53c | 20.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 939 | 2.4%23 W · 916 L | -386.8wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 5-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadaa…875abacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1,300 | 54.2%704 W · 596 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 79c | 16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…165abacked No | 79c | 13.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 84°F or higher on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.