South American Leagues · resolved market
FC Juárez vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd13ccc8c0afa2cf4848472b1379890fcff8b72517c1525fcd3dff973b8b0106d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,136
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,136 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 69c | 809.92$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.94 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e28…df76backed Over | 41c | 730.6$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 58c | 612.88$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.02 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 20c | 562$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.4 | 367 | 27%99 W · 268 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed Under | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 41c | 155$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.55 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ef…39b6backed Under | 75c | 153.06$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 270 | 31.5%85 W · 185 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb71…434dbacked Under | 75c | 18.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Juárez vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Juárez vs. Club Necaxa: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Juárez vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Juárez vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Juárez vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.