Asian League · resolved market
Gamba Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd147d1f2638fb77e87bf441ae604bdaf495400cdd9dffb56a9fc30d69575b04a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d1c…f13cbacked No | 51c | 626.55$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.54 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed No | 52c | 477.13$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.18 | 137 | 46.7%64 W · 73 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeea8…0412backed Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 50c | 348.28$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.68 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…6e5bbacked No | 47c | 314.63$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.14 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed Yes | 49c | 197.84$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.9 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Yes | 52c | 105.81$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8438…e2d1backed Yes | 51c | 93.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Yes | 48c | 62.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Yes | 49c | 61.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Yes | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 241 | 62.2%150 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 49c | 39.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 49c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef2…5584backed Yes | 49c | 29.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 49c | 24.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed No | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 1.5Over won
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 2.5Over won
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 3.5Under won
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Gamba Ōsaka (-1.5)Avispa Fukuoka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.