Asian League · resolved market
Gamba Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d32e07fd66f515ae229e28a28d88730ce0ac9fcdc882346864808d34a132de9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 1,393$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.74 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 36c | 1,253$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.18 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Over | 22c | 908.96$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.97 | 137 | 46.7%64 W · 73 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 31c | 749.15$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.76 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 61c | 614.9$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.51 | 120 | 74.2%89 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b9cebacked Over | 37c | 400$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…4806backed Over | 61c | 320.2$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.32 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 50c | 291$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.5 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8af5…4bbabacked Over | 62c | 274.2$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…aba4backed Under | 65c | 240.98$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.34 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 77c | 227.17$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Over | 23c | 207.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 61c | 160.1$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.66 | 334 | 52.7%176 W · 158 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 30c | 156.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.94 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 34c | 151.52$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 395 | 61.8%244 W · 151 L | +56.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5bac…f1a6backed Under | 66c | 148.42$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 56c | 147$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.76 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 50c | 144.62$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.07 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 41c | 140.84$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a2…0593backed Under | 78c | 139.16$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 78c | 103.12$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe497…2b89backed Under | 78c | 101.21$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c7…c8e5backed Over | 52c | 89.44$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Over | 42c | 68.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 76c | 60.38$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fd…fa11backed Over | 24c | 57.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 78c | 51.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 78c | 51.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 78c | 51.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 78c | 51.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…2a49backed Under | 41c | 47.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e15…8ea4backed Over | 61c | 43.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Under | 39c | 39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 77c | 37.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Over | 42c | 31.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -8.2wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 78c | 30.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed Under | 54c | 27.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 57c | 21.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 78c | 20.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 241 | 62.2%150 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed5…2aa3backed Under | 73c | 20.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…eb9fbacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e80…6910backed Over | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 78c | 19.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 78c | 18.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 98 | 60.2%59 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 3.5this page
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 1.5Over won
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 2.5Over won
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Gamba Ōsaka (-1.5)Avispa Fukuoka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.