Asian League · resolved market
Gamba Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e2917564bd0a6c97bc65b0bb1b3faa8575baee0d9d71495d1aa4d7cb121c767
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6394…9749backed Over | 45c | 7,702$3,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,242.35 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 55c | 1,838$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.64 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4244…03a6backed Under | 56c | 1,739$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Under | 55c | 1,600$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 182 | 53.3%97 W · 85 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Under | 56c | 1,376$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.69 | 137 | 46.7%64 W · 73 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 1,339$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.98 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Under | 55c | 1,222$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.99 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Over | 53c | 999.99$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.99 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Over | 48c | 999.95$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.97 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 56c | 707.74$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.22 | 1,101 | 49.7%547 W · 554 L | +3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Over | 44c | 705.03$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.82 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4912…b76fbacked Under | 52c | 682.94$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.13 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc329…0b75backed Over | 66c | 630.4$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe843…0699backed Under | 36c | 611$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.96 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Under | 55c | 600$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 171 | 47.4%81 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 55c | 423.62$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.68 | 1,760 | 50.3%885 W · 875 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf00e…00f4backed Over | 45c | 415.17$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.34 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba8…cdb3backed Over | 43c | 412.77$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +60%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Under | 56c | 333$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.48 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Under | 55c | 311.43$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.29 | 131 | 54.2%71 W · 60 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 54c | 299.96$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.98 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14fe…e0fdbacked Under | 37c | 259.56$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Over | 44c | 219.64$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 34c | 202.53$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.86 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 143 | 53.8%77 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fca…e8edbacked Under | 42c | 193.04$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.08 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under | 55c | 180$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 153 | 54.9%84 W · 69 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Under | 55c | 160$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 149 | 51%76 W · 73 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Under | 55c | 160$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 62c | 157.74$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.42 | 1,354 | 45.4%615 W · 739 L | +14.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 55c | 122.7$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.73 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e7…3f3fbacked Under | 40c | 121.21$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Under | 56c | 114.57$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.24 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Over | 46c | 104.65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.51 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 182 | 56%102 W · 80 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…f6e1backed Under | 47c | 97.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 53c | 89.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.64 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 57c | 67.16$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 54c | 63.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Under | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Under | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 161 | 54.7%88 W · 73 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Under | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 128 | 52.3%67 W · 61 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Over | 44c | 54.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 57c | 51.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 158 | 50%79 W · 79 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Over | 49c | 49.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8293…aaeebacked Under | 50c | 49.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Over | 46c | 45.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked Under | 55c | 45.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Under | 56c | 43.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 44c | 40.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Over | 48c | 40.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Under | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 161 | 55.9%90 W · 71 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 53c | 38.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 53c | 37.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 47c | 36.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 54c | 35.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 53c | 34.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 153 | 58.8%90 W · 63 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce5…af2ebacked Under | 54c | 34.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 54c | 30.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…7e1dbacked Under | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 143 | 49.7%71 W · 72 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2d…d7f8backed Over | 44c | 24.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Over | 48c | 22.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 2.5this page
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 1.5Over won
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 3.5Under won
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Gamba Ōsaka (-1.5)Avispa Fukuoka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.