MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. Toronto Blue Jays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd149d8ab3102ae8a2be48e759ac2e9bacdf0d58fd0d8970eacd93631478358df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Atlanta Braves, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,597
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8377…4198backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 2,595$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Atlanta Braves | 38c | 2,277$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.26 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Atlanta Braves | 51c | 1,359$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.35 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 49c | 1,068$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.68 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1107…b633backed Atlanta Braves | 51c | 686.27$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb23c…c49fbacked Atlanta Braves | 51c | 489.73$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Atlanta Braves | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Atlanta Braves | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…d77dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 49c | 161.73$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 154$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.74 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Atlanta Braves | 49c | 140.44$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.22 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 49c | 122.5$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.01 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Atlanta Braves | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Atlanta Braves | 50c | 90.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Atlanta Braves | 51c | 75.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 40.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9f…5dedbacked Atlanta Braves | 52c | 29.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Atlanta Braves | 53c | 25.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Atlanta Braves | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.