CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: STATE vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1a3cac3cf9c962d606a0fa8fa95949a82a1f8edaeb4cf7e5ab41f3d38ab7281
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- RUSTECof STATE, RUSTEC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7857…bab6backed RUSTEC | 71c | 357.33$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.58 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked RUSTEC | 63c | 181.38$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.91 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa073…a3babacked STATE | 58c | 152.25$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.04 | 1,117 | 68.6%766 W · 351 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8083…0b28backed STATE | 33c | 149.8$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed STATE | 31c | 132.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 1,304 | 26.5%345 W · 959 L | -89.4wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed STATE | 36c | 80.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 1,547 | 33.9%524 W · 1,023 L | -73.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01d…4716backed STATE | 17c | 73.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…1c86backed STATE | 24c | 59.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked RUSTEC | 61c | 46.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked STATE | 48c | 36.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: STATE vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: STATE vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Group StageRUSTEC won
- Counter-Strike: STATE vs RUSTEC - Map 1 WinnerRUSTEC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.