Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1deb130603d072e5c674150f27cd662dac48a1849f9844a3a10a885d736b01f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 22c | 706.64$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.15 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 71c | 307.56$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0c…ba73backed Yes | 31c | 304.5$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 69c | 289.84$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.85 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 256.74$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 13c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be8…14cbbacked No | 73c | 138.69$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…4fd0backed No | 69c | 132.41$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -10.5wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 126.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 26c | 118.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 117.09$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 12c | 104.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb0…9e4fbacked Yes | 25c | 99.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7b…b21ebacked Yes | 39c | 97.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 89.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 79c | 83.01$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2650backed No | 79c | 79.81$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 88 | 77.3%68 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…11a3backed Yes | 21c | 70.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 18c | 65.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 64.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 80c | 62.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 23c | 59.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 29c | 59.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 58.39$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87b4…2656backed Yes | 27c | 50.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 20c | 50.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5736…aed1backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 45.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 30c | 42.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 73c | 40.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 72c | 38.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 36c | 37.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 36.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 36c | 33.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 78c | 31.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 79c | 30.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 64c | 30.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 28.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 80c | 28.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 75c | 26.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcae0…fe76backed No | 75c | 26.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 66c | 24.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 79c | 23.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce93…b03bbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64f2…c2a5backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 72c | 19.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…4d9abacked No | 67c | 18.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 76c | 15.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 78c | 14.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 74c | 14.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 78c | 13.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58d5…d270backed No | 80c | 13.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.67 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on April 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or higher on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.