Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1e0211eba26871b31369139544abc34a4aacec89840f846844ea84e4f64b9e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,975
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,983
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,975 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9337…4fc6backed Yes | 1c | 5,428$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.28 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 24c | 457.45$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.21 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 242.02$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.81 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 38c | 193.53$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.69 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 168.31$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 24c | 158.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 77c | 158.06$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked No | 70c | 132.15$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.06 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 121.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 32c | 119.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 37c | 118.45$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 41c | 106.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.48 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 28c | 104.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 101.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 19c | 99.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc348…0b7ebacked Yes | 34c | 84.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 28c | 76.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 27c | 74.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 33c | 66.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e66…52f5backed Yes | 20c | 66.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 22c | 66.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 63.97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 70c | 53.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3361…e18ebacked Yes | 30c | 52.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ef…3e88backed Yes | 27c | 51.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 30c | 46.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 31c | 44.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 65c | 44.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 40.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 39.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed No | 71c | 38.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 72c | 37.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 47c | 34.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 59c | 33.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d6…8b53backed No | 74c | 33.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf387…5414backed Yes | 31c | 33.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 31.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed No | 63c | 30.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 34c | 29.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…198dbacked No | 52c | 24.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…52e8backed No | 64c | 23.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fd…3d4ebacked No | 56c | 21.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 65c | 20.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…3fc9backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 16.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C or below on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on April 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.