Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd22784c4ce7c252ea8797ad4513c95f016c096da7ab4b2f591f3c5bb1a116efd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,744
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,744 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 29c | 628.11$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.44 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2822…b098backed No | 9c | 516.23$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 32c | 492.55$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.3 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 7c | 483.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 61c | 432.92$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.88 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked Yes | 4c | 330.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 300.75$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 76c | 283.14$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.45 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 79c | 252.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 25c | 244.62$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 241.49$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked No | 69c | 234.46$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.19 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 68c | 229.47$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.43 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 70c | 227.19$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.56 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 215.4$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…e901backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 54 | 13%7 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 32c | 193.09$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.95 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 70c | 146.45$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 31c | 131.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 47c | 116.26$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed Yes | 29c | 108.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 10c | 106.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.04 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 46c | 82.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d2…262cbacked No | 69c | 75.59$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 35c | 69.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.07 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 36c | 68.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 70c | 65.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9750…031dbacked No | 70c | 61.18$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 54.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 46.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 34c | 44.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 58c | 37.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 36c | 32.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed No | 71c | 27.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 26.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 78c | 24.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 64c | 19.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked No | 70c | 14.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on April 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on April 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on April 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.