Tennis · resolved market
Brisbane International, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd27c233cf10c7cab70121c2a95e61adce98998b31893d6e08da7e4b21a6b61b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sasnovichof Timofeeva, Sasnovich
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Timofeeva | 35c | 925.92$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.29 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Timofeeva | 16c | 476.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.04 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Timofeeva | 11c | 470.18$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Timofeeva | 30c | 400.51$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.98 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Sasnovich | 71c | 262.52$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.17 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…86f6backed Sasnovich | 60c | 250.14$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.14 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Timofeeva | 41c | 244.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x176e…8f96backed Sasnovich | 59c | 239.02$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 178 | 63.5%113 W · 65 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Sasnovich | 62c | 233.59$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.36 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x645e…1bd3backed Sasnovich | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b17…e2c1backed Sasnovich | 61c | 93.57$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Timofeeva | 37c | 93.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e2c2backed Sasnovich | 63c | 93.36$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Timofeeva | 30c | 78.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf67c…44adbacked Timofeeva | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98d…745ebacked Timofeeva | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba8…90a3backed Timofeeva | 40c | 47.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 488 | 52.9%258 W · 230 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac0…63c8backed Sasnovich | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Sasnovich | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf470…67fdbacked Sasnovich | 64c | 21.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Sasnovich | 53c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 319 | 48.9%156 W · 163 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Sasnovich | 53c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 318 | 42.5%135 W · 183 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Brisbane International, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Aliaksandra Sasnovichthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Timofeeva vs SasnovichSasnovich won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.