F1 · resolved market
Will Mercedes get pole position at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd292b5d9d2d4f6c1e97fe13f42f6f89281d9b442e81becad3d6c3fb03d2a050e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2267…3355backed No | 69c | 274.25$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.92 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…c2e6backed Yes | 46c | 117.5$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x474e…b0fdbacked Yes | 38c | 100.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56e2…4a79backed No | 62c | 85.08$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 55c | 58.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc7…e4d4backed Yes | 40c | 45.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a38…b1a5backed Yes | 45c | 44.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 24.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 52c | 20.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mercedes get pole position at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?this page
- Will Mclaren Mastercard get pole position at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.