Premier League · resolved market
Bristol City FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2a30d4fd7f6a75a5de9617db092f085a2d4be54ca0da58c86b577f6821484e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,437
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,437 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 33c | 3,758$1,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,534.59 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 70c | 2,932$2,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,049.2 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b7…dbdabacked Under | 59c | 1,022$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 167 | 31.7%53 W · 114 L | -18.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 179.68$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.85 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd3…4255backed Under | 58c | 162.9$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 40c | 157.63$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.63 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 42c | 101$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.04 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Under | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Over | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf76d…29d8backed Under | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a9…8000backed Under | 69c | 37.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…b85fbacked Under | 75c | 14.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bristol City FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Bristol City FC vs. Watford FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Bristol City FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bristol City FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Bristol City FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Bristol City FC (-1.5)Bristol City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.