Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: ghosts vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - VCL Türkiye: Birlik Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2ea84023f9266594fb3503a5117eaa666a7b9086078c4365f43f8d8e8b2023e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fire Flux Esportsof ghosts, Fire Flux Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,779
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee8e…0a7bbacked Fire Flux Esports | 66c | 3,558$2,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,210.93 | 781 | 62%484 W · 297 L | +16.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…ba86backed Fire Flux Esports | 68c | 2,155$1,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.88 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed ghosts | 30c | 1,523$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.61 | 215 | 58.1%125 W · 90 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed ghosts | 33c | 1,384$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.27 | 301 | 47.2%142 W · 159 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…1772backed ghosts | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x448d…3adebacked ghosts | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed ghosts | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed ghosts | 33c | 491.48$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.28 | 324 | 62.7%203 W · 121 L | +31.7wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…f429backed ghosts | 31c | 477.13$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed ghosts | 25c | 296.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.99 | 347 | 39.8%138 W · 209 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked ghosts | 9c | 213.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 1,376 | 47.1%648 W · 728 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed ghosts | 37c | 180.91$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.56 | 242 | 50.4%122 W · 120 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked ghosts | 30c | 167.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 610 | 35.9%219 W · 391 L | -17.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed ghosts | 32c | 126.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked ghosts | 32c | 105.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 544 | 39.9%217 W · 327 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed ghosts | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 101 | 42.6%43 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Fire Flux Esports | 75c | 91.64$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 279 | 47.7%133 W · 146 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed ghosts | 34c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 176 | 54.5%96 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Fire Flux Esports | 65c | 76.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 1,490 | 46.6%695 W · 795 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd74…76b9backed Fire Flux Esports | 70c | 69.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Fire Flux Esports | 74c | 62.04$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 210 | 48.1%101 W · 109 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Fire Flux Esports | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 636 | 52.7%335 W · 301 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed ghosts | 18c | 59.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 575 | 17.7%102 W · 473 L | -71.7wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6c47…7a9fbacked Fire Flux Esports | 70c | 49.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…54ddbacked ghosts | 30c | 40.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3d…f35abacked Fire Flux Esports | 70c | 26.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b5…2ee9backed Fire Flux Esports | 78c | 24.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Fire Flux Esports | 79c | 22.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,746 | 46.2%806 W · 940 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: ghosts vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - VCL Türkiye: Birlik Group Bthis page
- Map Handicap: FF (-1.5) vs ghosts (+1.5)Fire Flux Esports won
- Valorant: ghosts vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 1 WinnerFire Flux Esports won
- Valorant: ghosts vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 2 WinnerFire Flux Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.