Tennis · resolved market
Royer vs. O'Connell: Match O/U 22.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2fe77aca871ba0c9ebc83555edd635102bcbb65d99bf6ea572e5180826557fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Under | 43c | 113$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Under | 43c | 94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf226…9c0fbacked Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 54c | 42.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Under | 43c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…bb17backed Over | 57c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.9wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf71c…488bbacked Over | 57c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda03…7f8cbacked Over | 57c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66f7…2894backed Over | 57c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa60c…b395backed Over | 57c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3b…bd9fbacked Over | 57c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +34%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…e3a4backed Over | 57c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb665…95a8backed Over | 57c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34b2…cec2backed Over | 57c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.3wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Royer vs. O'Connell: Match O/U 22.5this page
- Rotterdam Open: Valentin Royer vs Christopher O'ConnellO'Connell won
- Royer vs. O'Connell: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Royer vs. O'Connell: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Royer vs. O'Connell: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set Handicap: Royer (-1.5) vs O'Connell (+1.5)O'Connell won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.