Tennis · resolved market
Cincinnati Open: Simona Waltert vs Jessica Pegula
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd309880e35bbf145912a339a318781c0e3fec4b0ddf12b47a226e65f8e3b30d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jessica Pegulaof Simona Waltert, Jessica Pegula
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $136,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $138,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Simona Waltert | 7c | 19,718$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380.28 | 1,217 | 46.3%563 W · 654 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Simona Waltert | 3c | 10,734$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.38 | 9,038 | 36.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L | -196.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Simona Waltert | 3c | 9,272$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.94 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x565c…878dbacked Simona Waltert | 11c | 8,403$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.59 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3663…8950backed Simona Waltert | 13c | 7,500$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 394 | 43.1%170 W · 224 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…0dabbacked Simona Waltert | 8c | 7,495$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.75 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Simona Waltert | 4c | 3,706$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 975 | 7.9%77 W · 898 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Simona Waltert | 11c | 2,058$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.33 | 941 | 40.6%382 W · 559 L | -31.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…fb66backed Simona Waltert | 8c | 1,927$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.16 | 562 | 44.1%248 W · 314 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d91…40d3backed Simona Waltert | 3c | 1,724$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 486 | 30.9%150 W · 336 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Simona Waltert | 8c | 1,499$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.85 | 1,404 | 42.8%601 W · 803 L | -31.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Simona Waltert | 4c | 1,399$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.18 | 5,009 | 41.4%2,075 W · 2,934 L | -82.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Simona Waltert | 1c | 1,160$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 1,512 | 24.1%364 W · 1,148 L | -41.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a14…9fe4backed Simona Waltert | 10c | 1,100$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 415 | 35.4%147 W · 268 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Simona Waltert | 6c | 835.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Simona Waltert | 8c | 799$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.92 | 364 | 34.3%125 W · 239 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe302…a986backed Simona Waltert | 13c | 699.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 198 | 41.9%83 W · 115 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a0…7513backed Simona Waltert | 7c | 370.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 83 | 38.6%32 W · 51 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7f…6d8dbacked Simona Waltert | 4c | 315.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Simona Waltert | 7c | 285.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5,325 | 28.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L | -21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Simona Waltert | 7c | 220$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 2,069 | 46.7%966 W · 1,103 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Simona Waltert | 7c | 213.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 4,760 | 49.6%2,361 W · 2,399 L | +176.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00d9…b1b1backed Simona Waltert | 5c | 206.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 516 | 36.2%187 W · 329 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Simona Waltert | 7c | 198$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 284 | 42.3%120 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05f5…fe8dbacked Simona Waltert | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec17…0af9backed Simona Waltert | 14c | 107$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 130 | 38.5%50 W · 80 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b3…e104backed Simona Waltert | 14c | 107$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Open: Simona Waltert vs Jessica Pegulathis page
- Set 1 Winner: Waltert vs PegulaPegula won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.