MLB · resolved market
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3315fb4834451eb5cdaacb240dea31b18cc08dbde15e6d423665bb0802b9c57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Angelsof Texas Rangers, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,644
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Texas Rangers | 30c | 1,424$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.34 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Texas Rangers | 42c | 956.2$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.6 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Los Angeles Angels | 69c | 798.19$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.54 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Los Angeles Angels | 66c | 640.44$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.43 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Texas Rangers | 21c | 594.41$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.16 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b89…9f72backed Texas Rangers | 43c | 117.58$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbafe…33a6backed Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Texas Rangers | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Texas Rangers | 42c | 28.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a85…3699backed Los Angeles Angels | 73c | 26.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Texas Rangers | 42c | 25.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Los Angeles Angels | 69c | 22.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 356 | 58.1%207 W · 149 L | +26.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas RangersLos Angeles Angels won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas RangersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.