Tennis · resolved market
ITF Takasaki: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Hikaru Sato
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd37812be4aeef25a83e603ae6076e3392872a720ca2eb6b17235a309717c1c3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hikaru Satoof Mananchaya Sawangkaew, Hikaru Sato
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,507
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mananchaya Sawangkaew | 69c | 2,075$1,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,437.05 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Hikaru Sato | 30c | 1,933$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350.51 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Mananchaya Sawangkaew | 2c | 928$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Hikaru Sato | 30c | 624$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.26 | 1,532 | 40.7%624 W · 908 L | -48.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Hikaru Sato | 30c | 497.84$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.68 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed Mananchaya Sawangkaew | 75c | 242.67$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.1 | 783 | 50.3%394 W · 389 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21b5…1db6backed Hikaru Sato | 57c | 138.19$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.42 | 285 | 62.8%179 W · 106 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Mananchaya Sawangkaew | 72c | 124.48$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.17 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Mananchaya Sawangkaew | 50c | 122.02$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 971 | 41.4%402 W · 569 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Mananchaya Sawangkaew | 79c | 121.25$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 128 | 36.7%47 W · 81 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Mananchaya Sawangkaew | 73c | 112.68$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.68 | 1,174 | 51.9%609 W · 565 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Mananchaya Sawangkaew | 73c | 95.84$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.63 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked Mananchaya Sawangkaew | 71c | 90.53$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.24 | 135 | 57.8%78 W · 57 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Mananchaya Sawangkaew | 76c | 89$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.64 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Hikaru Sato | 28c | 86.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.55 | 168 | 44.6%75 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Hikaru Sato | 29c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.62 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Mananchaya Sawangkaew | 68c | 58.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Mananchaya Sawangkaew | 67c | 55.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 1,421 | 55%782 W · 639 L | +23.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Hikaru Sato | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 423 | 50.8%215 W · 208 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Mananchaya Sawangkaew | 68c | 42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Mananchaya Sawangkaew | 69c | 41.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Hikaru Sato | 29c | 39.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Mananchaya Sawangkaew | 72c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Mananchaya Sawangkaew | 69c | 26.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.