Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
California Baptist Lancers vs. UT Arlington Mavericks: O/U 131.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3a80558a00e48e3d8122bfcb98e44049f0d12f52dabadf88c0d85c31f65bdc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,355
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,355 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe248…f293backed Over | 56c | 5,013$2,803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,209.68 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +38.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 4,065$1,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,787.68 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 56c | 2,153$1,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.87 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40a5…f0a8backed Under | 45c | 2,076$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.18 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 43c | 438.88$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.54 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Under | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 142 | 44.4%63 W · 79 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 139 | 40.3%56 W · 83 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…607ebacked Over | 55c | 150.37$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.67 | 321 | 46.7%150 W · 171 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over | 57c | 73.82$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 693 | 50.4%349 W · 344 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 55c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb0…3182backed Over | 56c | 60.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 44c | 40.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Under | 44c | 28.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 423 | 39.2%166 W · 257 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 55c | 19.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 974 | 47.9%467 W · 507 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- California Baptist Lancers vs. UT Arlington Mavericks: O/U 131.5this page
- California Baptist Lancers vs. UT Arlington MavericksCalifornia Baptist Lancers won
- California Baptist Lancers vs. UT Arlington Mavericks: O/U 132.5Over won
- California Baptist Lancers vs. UT Arlington Mavericks: O/U 133.5Over won
- Spread: UT Arlington Mavericks (-1.5)California Baptist Lancers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.