Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Cerundolo vs Dellien
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3b6d35f29cfec67ca080837903baa17a5b69c9a47735550f55600f2c5be4b2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cerundoloof Cerundolo, Dellien
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x430b…6e64backed Dellien | 27c | 162.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 204 | 47.5%97 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Cerundolo | 73c | 150.3$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.58 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d99…934cbacked Cerundolo | 75c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x226a…6e99backed Cerundolo | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…ad1ebacked Cerundolo | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f94…c756backed Cerundolo | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad0f…0e3cbacked Cerundolo | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…11fabacked Cerundolo | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fed…23e5backed Cerundolo | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a9…c2f9backed Cerundolo | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e6…ac47backed Cerundolo | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb66b…8751backed Cerundolo | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69e2…48a0backed Cerundolo | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe16c…8bf3backed Cerundolo | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8610…eba9backed Cerundolo | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8b…2f4ebacked Cerundolo | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe98a…23f3backed Cerundolo | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Cerundolo vs Dellienthis page
- Argentina Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Hugo DellienCerundolo won
- Cerundolo vs. Dellien: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Cerundolo vs. Dellien: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-1.5) vs Dellien (+1.5)Cerundolo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.