Tennis · resolved market
Argentina Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Hugo Dellien
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x653c28bc3b633e61b5c21cbcbc0b149332ada5bc9c4fa577fc47db918b2ad5d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cerundoloof Cerundolo, Dellien
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,126
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,126 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Dellien | 1c | 7,060$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Dellien | 2c | 6,766$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.57 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Dellien | 14c | 1,901$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.12 | 761 | 40.6%309 W · 452 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Dellien | 4c | 1,646$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.15 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Dellien | 8c | 1,340$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.6 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Dellien | 16c | 1,312$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.15 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Dellien | 6c | 1,210$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 678 | 36%244 W · 434 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Dellien | 15c | 1,075$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.11 | 289 | 33.2%96 W · 193 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Dellien | 15c | 671.32$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 761 | 46.6%355 W · 406 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb62f…6836backed Dellien | 7c | 497.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Dellien | 12c | 487.13$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430b…6e64backed Dellien | 16c | 437.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.06 | 204 | 47.5%97 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed Dellien | 16c | 360$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.59 | 692 | 49.6%343 W · 349 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Dellien | 13c | 325.32$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Cerundolo | 76c | 252$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Dellien | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8f…8ed0backed Dellien | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Dellien | 15c | 157.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Dellien | 17c | 139$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Dellien | 15c | 132.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 602 | 40.5%244 W · 358 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Dellien | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 491 | 43%211 W · 280 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Dellien | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,107 | 43.5%481 W · 626 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Dellien | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Dellien | 11c | 110.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 156 | 5.8%9 W · 147 L | -32.4wins | -0.21per pick | 27cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Dellien | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…4e76backed Dellien | 12c | 92.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 333 | 26.4%88 W · 245 L | -14.1wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Dellien | 15c | 84.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 420 | 46.9%197 W · 223 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…f101backed Dellien | 16c | 77.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 218 | 43.1%94 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Dellien | 14c | 74.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Argentina Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Hugo Dellienthis page
- Cerundolo vs. Dellien: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Cerundolo vs. Dellien: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Cerundolo vs DellienCerundolo won
- Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-1.5) vs Dellien (+1.5)Cerundolo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.