Bundesliga · resolved market
Will RB Leipzig beat VfB Stuttgart?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3c3042ae063499baad3e4ee23bb74b41f8e631a356f317f5eff79fa5157675b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,201
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,779
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,201 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed No | 50c | 5,999$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,999.54 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +75%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 60c | 5,000$3,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,017.24 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 54c | 3,276$1,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,768.96 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 43c | 3,000$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +7.2wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 49c | 2,946$1,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,444.27 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 54c | 1,724$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.04 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 49c | 1,668$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.33 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb39…ed7abacked Yes | 52c | 1,200$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed No | 51c | 707.7$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.06 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5232backed Yes | 45c | 334$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 50c | 236$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.24 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe395…3a53backed Yes | 52c | 134.6$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed No | 37c | 133.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed Yes | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 50c | 59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87cb…374dbacked No | 50c | 55.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…d3c0backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa8…9a9ebacked Yes | 63c | 16.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will RB Leipzig beat VfB Stuttgart?this page
- Will RB Leipzig vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?No won
- Will VfB Stuttgart beat RB Leipzig?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.