Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfB Stuttgart beat RB Leipzig?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56e8199651291c9274a728dda9a0ed262328ef4ac41a4027c53a2f66a5854300
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 34c | 2,660$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,747.77 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 71c | 1,134$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.14 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 29c | 1,131$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.11 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 31c | 890.32$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.32 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked No | 72c | 777$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.44 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 28c | 653.68$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.68 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked No | 71c | 500$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…3488backed Yes | 72c | 416.81$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Yes | 79c | 400$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.05 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5232backed No | 74c | 269$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed No | 22c | 118$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 19c | 82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.42 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 226 | 69%156 W · 70 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d85…be2ebacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…d3c0backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfB Stuttgart beat RB Leipzig?this page
- Will RB Leipzig beat VfB Stuttgart?No won
- Will RB Leipzig vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.