MLB · resolved market
NYM Mets vs. HOU Astros March 28
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3fa1421c0da6a1c72d2205a4ede6ca181fe2608954f0b87140b1a6c0369283d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Metsof Mets, Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2863…0e3ebacked Astros | 51c | 2,217$1,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Mets | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.82 | 920 | 50%460 W · 460 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Mets | 48c | 718.08$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.4 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Astros | 23c | 448.9$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.06 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1af…d23bbacked Mets | 76c | 434$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.16 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3418…458abacked Mets | 79c | 425.48$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Astros | 52c | 381.17$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.25 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Astros | 53c | 374.91$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Mets | 47c | 249.45$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.24 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Astros | 29c | 203.21$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Astros | 53c | 187.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Astros | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Mets | 46c | 167.87$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.65 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Mets | 49c | 109$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.78 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Mets | 71c | 91.41$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc0…d2fbbacked Astros | 20c | 73.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Astros | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Astros | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Astros | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Mets | 48c | 29.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff7f…c7a4backed Mets | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NYM Mets vs. HOU Astros March 28this page
- ATL Braves vs. SD Padres March 28Padres won
- BAL Orioles vs. TOR Blue Jays March 28Blue Jays won
- BOS Red Sox vs. TEX Rangers March 28Rangers won
- CHC Cubs vs. ARI Diamondbacks March 28Diamondbacks won
- COL Rockies vs. TB Rays March 28Rays won
- DET Tigers vs. LAD Dodgers March 28Dodgers won
- OAK Athletics vs. SEA Mariners March 28Athletics won
- PIT Pirates vs. MIA Marlins March 28Pirates won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.