MLB · resolved market
PIT Pirates vs. MIA Marlins March 28
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25c0a229d80b29d260c3dfce83a51cb7caf95e2254472548e9127119ef9f0dd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Piratesof Pirates, Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a69…a466backed Pirates | 60c | 19,139$11,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,676.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Marlins | 40c | 17,796$7,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,075.3 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Marlins | 41c | 1,088$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.54 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Pirates | 59c | 1,000$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Pirates | 71c | 900$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Marlins | 40c | 742.68$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Marlins | 42c | 708.98$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.77 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Marlins | 41c | 565.51$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.11 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Marlins | 42c | 427.75$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.57 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Marlins | 24c | 399.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.24 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Pirates | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Marlins | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db6…da81backed Marlins | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -6.2wins | -0.45per pick | 52cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Pirates | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Pirates | 59c | 170.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.43 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Marlins | 43c | 135.18$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Marlins | 44c | 112$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01f1…a76dbacked Marlins | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Marlins | 43c | 77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Pirates | 56c | 77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Marlins | 44c | 70.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 237 | 52.7%125 W · 112 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7e…e5e9backed Pirates | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf7…cdb7backed Marlins | 43c | 44.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 457 | 49.7%227 W · 230 L | +12.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Pirates | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3e…5958backed Pirates | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Pirates | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Pirates | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1042…784abacked Pirates | 59c | 24.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- PIT Pirates vs. MIA Marlins March 28this page
- ATL Braves vs. SD Padres March 28Padres won
- BAL Orioles vs. TOR Blue Jays March 28Blue Jays won
- BOS Red Sox vs. TEX Rangers March 28Rangers won
- CHC Cubs vs. ARI Diamondbacks March 28Diamondbacks won
- COL Rockies vs. TB Rays March 28Rays won
- DET Tigers vs. LAD Dodgers March 28Dodgers won
- NYM Mets vs. HOU Astros March 28Mets won
- OAK Athletics vs. SEA Mariners March 28Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.