South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Independiente win on 2026-01-31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd410116bc6925e3d8191ea3a39e245d567e7678d62cf271125c097d505678a4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,956
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 56c | 2,078$1,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.26 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 59c | 1,789$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.94 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 44c | 1,204$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.63 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x466f…bb3bbacked Yes | 31c | 548.85$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 103 | 26.2%27 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 66c | 534.92$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.46 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e0…8883backed Yes | 45c | 517$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 44c | 510$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.29 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237e…a5f0backed Yes | 46c | 435.15$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.17 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Yes | 23c | 398.08$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.56 | 95 | 22.1%21 W · 74 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2745…a5fbbacked No | 70c | 353.56$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.07 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3f…c7f3backed Yes | 26c | 255$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.95 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x858d…9d9fbacked Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.95 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0931…8dccbacked Yes | 28c | 185.71$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Yes | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 212 | 51.9%110 W · 102 L | +14.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 39c | 147.83$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.04 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab8…b5a6backed No | 69c | 143.46$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.47 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Yes | 45c | 111.68$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…aed4backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3e…ef94backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed No | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e8…ed04backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd2…8759backed Yes | 43c | 46.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf3…80abbacked Yes | 45c | 35.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x497e…1161backed Yes | 41c | 32.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0173…0216backed Yes | 41c | 29.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 55c | 27.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…2d57backed No | 69c | 18.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 114 | 61.4%70 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Independiente win on 2026-01-31?this page
- Will CA Independiente vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield end in a draw?Yes won
- Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2026-01-31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.