NHL · resolved market
Kraken vs. Islanders
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd42a4782a4a0676cedb1da738274328e5c724714fb23128f33cf5fd2956ba6d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Krakenof Kraken, Islanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,120
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x480d…f219backed Kraken | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 851 | 48.5%413 W · 438 L | -48.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Islanders | 15c | 552.27$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.83 | 313 | 34.8%109 W · 204 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed Kraken | 43c | 396.31$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.54 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Islanders | 15c | 300.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b41…e0d3backed Islanders | 57c | 233$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.81 | 244 | 57.4%140 W · 104 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdea2…0b44backed Kraken | 48c | 200.29$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Kraken | 44c | 142.68$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.9 | 355 | 45.4%161 W · 194 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Islanders | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.95 | 1,039 | 55.2%574 W · 465 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9a…cb4dbacked Islanders | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c91…0505backed Islanders | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ad…f186backed Islanders | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 135 | 62.2%84 W · 51 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Kraken | 47c | 85.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 181 | 36.5%66 W · 115 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked Islanders | 53c | 59.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x189a…0fbfbacked Kraken | 45c | 55.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd28…2e65backed Islanders | 56c | 52.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf5…098fbacked Islanders | 55c | 44.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed Kraken | 47c | 42.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…d466backed Kraken | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…f86dbacked Kraken | 44c | 36.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…9704backed Kraken | 76c | 36.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 170 | 54.7%93 W · 77 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfce4…7addbacked Islanders | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c1…a7cbbacked Islanders | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…be0dbacked Islanders | 56c | 25.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb541…947fbacked Islanders | 54c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe563…398bbacked Islanders | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.