NBA · resolved market
Pistons vs. Cavaliers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd43300258d17ee6e0955397844501149390a5373103ee8223b1aba6f6d943979
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cavaliersof Pistons, Cavaliers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,820
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,568
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,820 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcef8…1f8dbacked Pistons | 16c | 3,446$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.01 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Cavaliers | 78c | 2,572$2,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.21 | 476 | 56.5%269 W · 207 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34e…895ebacked Pistons | 19c | 2,121$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.07 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb492…b7edbacked Pistons | 22c | 2,079$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.46 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked Pistons | 19c | 1,846$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.11 | 461 | 31%143 W · 318 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04a…824ebacked Pistons | 19c | 1,294$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.85 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Pistons | 29c | 1,000$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.97 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8025…ef54backed Pistons | 20c | 760.63$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.98 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b30…7cf1backed Pistons | 18c | 594.92$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Pistons | 13c | 514.58$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.98 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a11…6df2backed Pistons | 20c | 499.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 22cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Pistons | 9c | 452.55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c56…dfa1backed Pistons | 19c | 374.74$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -33%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Cavaliers | 78c | 169.77$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 615 | 32.2%198 W · 417 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…3a25backed Pistons | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfe…bc07backed Pistons | 22c | 142.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc60…3e66backed Cavaliers | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4998…a8d7backed Pistons | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Pistons | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 774 | 37.5%290 W · 484 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cavaliers | 76c | 99.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1,166 | 54.4%634 W · 532 L | +19.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8369…3c94backed Pistons | 25c | 87.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2376…30f5backed Pistons | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…40d2backed Pistons | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c3…9760backed Pistons | 22c | 51.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -6.8wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x09b8…918bbacked Pistons | 22c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Cavaliers | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 139 | 69.1%96 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b21…b755backed Cavaliers | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.