MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd44e706ae1bf6a4c860b4b1b1c6e53bbf26b05fea959f6f4c549a10699dba0a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof Cincinnati Reds, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,276
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,276 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Cincinnati Reds | 72c | 777$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.44 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 55cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed San Diego Padres | 46c | 552$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.8 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed San Diego Padres | 31c | 443.8$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.68 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 436$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.66 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…6592backed Cincinnati Reds | 70c | 420$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed San Diego Padres | 41c | 346$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.83 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed San Diego Padres | 32c | 230.4$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.86 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked San Diego Padres | 37c | 200$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.85 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked San Diego Padres | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 67c | 150$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.3 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed San Diego Padres | 47c | 106.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.39 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22be…e36ebacked San Diego Padres | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Cincinnati Reds | 69c | 96$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 84.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked San Diego Padres | 52c | 53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7027…fababacked Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 39.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed San Diego Padres | 32c | 34.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.29per pick | 48cpaid | +86%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed San Diego Padres | 32c | 34.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 34.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked San Diego Padres | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161f…d3f4backed Cincinnati Reds | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…b39dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.