Tennis · resolved market
Adelaide International: Kimberly Birrell vs Victoria Mboko
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd45f9c7c906b1d8123ba9840934add8f71fee8f483bc55b38e5f2ea09d5b7e8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mbokoof Birrell, Mboko
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd41a…fd60backed Birrell | 18c | 2,826$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.29 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +133.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Birrell | 17c | 2,787$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.59 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Birrell | 18c | 1,249$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.37 | 265 | 35.5%94 W · 171 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Birrell | 19c | 1,053$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,841 | 48.5%892 W · 949 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Birrell | 17c | 1,020$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.9 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Birrell | 33c | 582.09$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.07 | 186 | 44.6%83 W · 103 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22dd…6743backed Birrell | 20c | 527.4$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed Mboko | 79c | 465$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.15 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Birrell | 16c | 334.36$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Birrell | 18c | 299.03$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Birrell | 18c | 278$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 602 | 40.5%244 W · 358 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Mboko | 79c | 267.56$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.61 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Birrell | 23c | 202.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Birrell | 18c | 199.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,158 | 44.4%514 W · 644 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20cb…d211backed Mboko | 75c | 158$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 103 | 58.3%60 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Birrell | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 307 | 50.5%155 W · 152 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb06…4ababacked Birrell | 19c | 115.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 287 | 54%155 W · 132 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Birrell | 22c | 112$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 281 | 39.1%110 W · 171 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x094d…59f3backed Birrell | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Birrell | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Birrell | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07fe…0a16backed Mboko | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 270 | 58.1%157 W · 113 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Birrell | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Mboko | 80c | 88.53$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Birrell | 18c | 76.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…f101backed Birrell | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 218 | 43.1%94 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Birrell | 22c | 65.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b54…4143backed Birrell | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe634…9ccfbacked Birrell | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Birrell | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 593 | 48.9%290 W · 303 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Mboko | 45c | 29.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 925 | 48.8%451 W · 474 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ad…44febacked Mboko | 80c | 12.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.58 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Adelaide International: Kimberly Birrell vs Victoria Mbokothis page
- Birrell vs. Mboko: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Birrell vs. Mboko: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Birrell vs MbokoMboko won
- Set Handicap: Mboko (-1.5) vs Birrell (+1.5)Mboko won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.