NHL · resolved market
KHL: Admiral Vladivostok vs. HC Sochi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd46f2b0a3ef409eec56a103af620308c0b87f4d8bba04f295f8833ca8637fb84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- HC Sochiof Admiral Vladivostok, HC Sochi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $585
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f1c…0dd0backed HC Sochi | 29c | 102$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.42 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed HC Sochi | 29c | 90$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.9 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeff8…1bcfbacked HC Sochi | 29c | 76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.96 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Admiral Vladivostok | 67c | 60.61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 243 | 49.8%121 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…a4a1backed HC Sochi | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed HC Sochi | 28c | 56.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.83 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac2f…21fabacked Admiral Vladivostok | 73c | 55.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88d0…524cbacked Admiral Vladivostok | 71c | 54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb570…25dbbacked Admiral Vladivostok | 71c | 46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…c985backed Admiral Vladivostok | 71c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 61cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9431…6270backed Admiral Vladivostok | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…7d17backed Admiral Vladivostok | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb665…95a8backed Admiral Vladivostok | 71c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57a…a337backed Admiral Vladivostok | 71c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a3…dac6backed Admiral Vladivostok | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…67b1backed Admiral Vladivostok | 71c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x891e…ea69backed Admiral Vladivostok | 71c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.