Tennis · resolved market
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 China Open Men’s Singles?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd47a71c664fd4aabee42a08e1724c6b594b274a3da555f6aca4dd68bdcba001f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Yes | 80c | 15,523$12,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,143 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed No | 14c | 15,110$2,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,175.42 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed No | 3c | 13,345$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.36 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 22c | 9,699$2,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,115.42 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 3c | 5,821$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.63 | 282 | 41.8%118 W · 164 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9725…2365backed Yes | 74c | 1,719$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9a…099fbacked No | 3c | 1,694$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8406…0176backed Yes | 73c | 1,500$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked No | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 4c | 811.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Yes | 74c | 770$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed No | 5c | 380$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…7f00backed No | 5c | 340$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…635cbacked No | 3c | 334.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +170.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…ccb8backed Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 137 | 62.8%86 W · 51 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a29…c0b6backed Yes | 75c | 160$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 18c | 136.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 15c | 133.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 14c | 103.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc840…0650backed No | 27c | 88.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a2…09f2backed Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…2f0dbacked Yes | 77c | 24.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2f…66b2backed Yes | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 64 | 70.3%45 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab0…126ebacked Yes | 75c | 14.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 China Open Men’s Singles?this page
- Will Alex de Minaur win the 2025 China Open Men’s Singles?No won
- Will Learner Tien win the 2025 China Open Men’s Singles?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.