College Football · resolved market
CFB: Colorado (-9.5) vs. NDSU
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd48ec9241e2d8ed0c84ccf50e0b97c212477dcb4a24a7a772f5b43bf6f46f71e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NDSUof Colorado, NDSU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Colorado | 55c | 1,482$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.66 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed NDSU | 46c | 1,303$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.36 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked NDSU | 45c | 1,126$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.07 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Colorado | 54c | 1,111$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Colorado | 58c | 355$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.95 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked NDSU | 48c | 349.97$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.98 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…d19cbacked NDSU | 53c | 297.88$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.81 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked NDSU | 44c | 250.24$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.69 | 242 | 29.3%71 W · 171 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0289…804dbacked Colorado | 52c | 209.96$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…9875backed NDSU | 51c | 209.76$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed Colorado | 54c | 186.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed Colorado | 51c | 174.96$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.95 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Colorado | 49c | 149.76$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.38 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…5b91backed NDSU | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2efc…5686backed NDSU | 41c | 105$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.95 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0513…4e8cbacked Colorado | 52c | 59.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed NDSU | 44c | 50.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x53e8…5260backed Colorado | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf70b…5acdbacked NDSU | 49c | 24.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed6…58b9backed NDSU | 65c | 23.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa000…db71backed Colorado | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.