Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Trailer Park Boys - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd48f61b2588703d3191a000ce28689fe3eb1ff4ca58ab40d9d98cddc93a19826
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trailer Park Boysof Team Nemesis, Trailer Park Boys
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,272
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,272 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Team Nemesis | 55c | 1,310$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.85 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Team Nemesis | 2c | 1,040$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed Trailer Park Boys | 33c | 573.61$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.6 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…be2dbacked Trailer Park Boys | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Trailer Park Boys | 65c | 250.51$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.74 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Trailer Park Boys | 41c | 175.51$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.55 | 613 | 2.1%13 W · 600 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e10…b8d4backed Team Nemesis | 58c | 130$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf056…b5dfbacked Trailer Park Boys | 39c | 80$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc85d…6832backed Team Nemesis | 61c | 80$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…6128backed Trailer Park Boys | 30c | 55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 180 | 75%135 W · 45 L | +18.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb59b…916bbacked Trailer Park Boys | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9849…36f0backed Trailer Park Boys | 30c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…7d07backed Trailer Park Boys | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 254 | 44.5%113 W · 141 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Trailer Park Boys | 47c | 27.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Trailer Park Boys - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Trailer Park Boys (BO3)Team Nemesis won
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Trailer Park Boys - Game 1 WinnerTeam Nemesis won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.