Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of July 6 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4a71020918d9b817b34c45c3bb566fea705d8507007a1bda76c5e3d0d557bad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 63c | 907.1$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.56 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Yes | 32c | 633.63$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.8 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x403f…94f1backed Yes | 32c | 588.94$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.53 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdd…d359backed Yes | 71c | 505.81$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.93 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 348.77$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.48 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed No | 78c | 250.34$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.37 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd292…b066backed No | 76c | 200$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 24 | 95.8%23 W · 1 L | +5.7wins | +0.24per pick | 72cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xeec0…2175backed Yes | 9c | 177.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 170$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…71b6backed No | 63c | 158.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.53 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +5.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed No | 51c | 125.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.7 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x058d…bbabbacked Yes | 22c | 111$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x566c…3d03backed Yes | 50c | 60.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 76c | 15.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa41d…53e9backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of July 6 2026?this page
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,250 Week of July 6 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 Week of July 6 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,350 Week of July 6 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 Week of July 6 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,950 Week of July 6 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of July 6 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 Week of July 6 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.