CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Fake do Biru (BO3) - PGL Astana: South American Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4a91141a72417ed5c3f953ccb0d7db2afefb18b4c5ad0a9bc09f5b93e82d466
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fake do Biruof Keyd, Fake do Biru
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,791
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,791 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Keyd | 39c | 394.22$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.05 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Fake do Biru | 49c | 362.22$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.36 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…6e8bbacked Fake do Biru | 62c | 157.15$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.41 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Keyd | 50c | 129.46$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.36 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ad…68c9backed Fake do Biru | 64c | 116.08$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Keyd | 34c | 114.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 463 | 44.5%206 W · 257 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Fake do Biru | 76c | 114.63$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86bc…efbcbacked Keyd | 39c | 99.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Keyd | 23c | 93.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 601 | 47.4%285 W · 316 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6722…865fbacked Fake do Biru | 65c | 75.77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed Keyd | 27c | 74.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 917 | 43.7%401 W · 516 L | -35.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Fake do Biru | 74c | 55.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f5…7a95backed Keyd | 37c | 51.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 237 | 51.5%122 W · 115 L | -14.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37d7…f131backed Keyd | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 334 | 51.5%172 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Fake do Biru | 48c | 49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 762 | 48.4%369 W · 393 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…513dbacked Keyd | 47c | 38.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Fake do Biru | 43c | 36.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…e3bbbacked Fake do Biru | 61c | 35.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13af…b19fbacked Keyd | 46c | 31.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee16…16a2backed Keyd | 40c | 25.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 297 | 52.2%155 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc539…5ec2backed Fake do Biru | 61c | 17.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Fake do Biru (BO3) - PGL Astana: South American Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Fake do Biru - Map 1 WinnerFake do Biru won
- Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Fake do Biru - Map 2 WinnerFake do Biru won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.