Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4e37a5a537af18393ce9c4ded94a9875fe4574888046378399256184340d1bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 2,133$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 50c | 409.81$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.46 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 12c | 311.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 35c | 298.02$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.85 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 227.87$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.81 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 79c | 224.12$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.32 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 184$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.05 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 35c | 173.74$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.74 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 76c | 170.15$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed Yes | 34c | 163.14$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.08 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 108.07$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 68c | 96.55$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 30c | 88.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.11 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 66c | 76.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 25c | 67.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.28 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 42c | 58.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe4…7107backed Yes | 45c | 52.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 39c | 47.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe0…64b7backed No | 35c | 44.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 40.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 37c | 38.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 65c | 34.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…c4b7backed No | 76c | 31.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +233%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 48c | 30.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 80c | 26.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 66c | 24.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 76c | 21.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 72c | 20.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 66c | 19.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 64c | 19.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 17.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc495…b421backed No | 63c | 16.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c4…293dbacked No | 76c | 16.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 77c | 13.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 17°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 18°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.