Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5464028029e033ecfa7a35be49b75f9b606541af77c6418a2d97305b91159729
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 359.52$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.41 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0335…6ecabacked No | 64c | 289.3$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.19 | 54 | 92.6%50 W · 4 L | +17.4wins | +0.32per pick | 60cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed Yes | 66c | 261.86$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.97 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 184.07$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 39c | 175$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.66 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 39c | 166.03$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.17 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0a…5270backed Yes | 50c | 134.46$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.73 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 38c | 132.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.86 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe4…7107backed Yes | 55c | 79.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 54c | 73.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 71.08$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 59.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked Yes | 42c | 58.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 49c | 57.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…bad2backed No | 49c | 57.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 70c | 57.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 54.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 50c | 47.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 49c | 45.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1928backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed Yes | 37c | 38.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 38c | 38.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec4f…9b0cbacked Yes | 55c | 38.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 37.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 80c | 34.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 51c | 33.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 51c | 33.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 53c | 32.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 50c | 29.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…f366backed Yes | 64c | 29.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 59c | 29.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed Yes | 48c | 27.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 51c | 24.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked Yes | 70c | 23.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 48c | 22.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 70c | 22.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2af7…570dbacked Yes | 59c | 21.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed Yes | 72c | 20.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 19.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a1…9f22backed Yes | 52c | 19.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 53c | 19.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc495…b421backed No | 60c | 17.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 17°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 18°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.