Tennis · resolved market
ITF Los Angeles: Lily Taylor vs Kaitlyn Carnicella
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4f7ce98ab1d35e30fd47d1968e51524a961d4690e381c53746877af8a9412b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kaitlyn Carnicellaof Lily Taylor, Kaitlyn Carnicella
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,872
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,591
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,872 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Kaitlyn Carnicella | 48c | 2,230$1,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,157.4 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…e403backed Lily Taylor | 48c | 1,731$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.26 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d74…f2abbacked Kaitlyn Carnicella | 48c | 417.38$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.38 | 433 | 34.9%151 W · 282 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb71e…641abacked Lily Taylor | 64c | 408$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.12 | 337 | 51.9%175 W · 162 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4efe…d987backed Kaitlyn Carnicella | 49c | 392.33$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.84 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Lily Taylor | 41c | 314$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.4 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b39…7fbcbacked Kaitlyn Carnicella | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Lily Taylor | 40c | 227.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Kaitlyn Carnicella | 59c | 168.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.45 | 692 | 53.3%369 W · 323 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Lily Taylor | 66c | 150$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…dc5abacked Lily Taylor | 42c | 105.71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Lily Taylor | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Lily Taylor | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Lily Taylor | 54c | 75.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c7…3b08backed Lily Taylor | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 509 | 58%295 W · 214 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Lily Taylor | 58c | 71.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Lily Taylor | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Lily Taylor | 51c | 47.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Kaitlyn Carnicella | 58c | 46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 1,228 | 41.1%505 W · 723 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Lily Taylor | 51c | 27.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326d…3584backed Lily Taylor | 55c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 184 | 33.2%61 W · 123 L | -40.4wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Lily Taylor | 70c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 391 | 61.4%240 W · 151 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Lily Taylor | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 625 | 49.6%310 W · 315 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.