Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on February 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd520148c4ff54562afe5ec3565f4dcf3dd4ec63b05fb159b7f434d8f01b54796
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,907
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,907 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd833…ba96backed No | 51c | 441.17$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.17 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 49c | 350.02$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.51 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 46c | 247.53$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.13 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x174c…4351backed Yes | 60c | 181.72$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.7 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5953…57e6backed Yes | 62c | 151.58$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.66 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 47c | 129.52$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.26 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 38c | 128.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 45c | 119.9$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.44 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 20c | 90.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 35c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87b9…3246backed No | 41c | 81.03$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ef…9f35backed Yes | 37c | 77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9642…a6a4backed No | 67c | 71.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 79c | 66.25$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.51 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa8…21dfbacked No | 53c | 56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0646…3d3dbacked No | 50c | 56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc452…3bbfbacked Yes | 44c | 45.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…b4efbacked No | 58c | 41.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 47c | 38.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 53c | 37.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 51c | 36.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9736…64b8backed No | 54c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85eb…5cedbacked Yes | 47c | 30.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…42a2backed No | 55c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…ee01backed No | 59c | 27.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 80 | 72.5%58 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 56c | 26.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78bd…15edbacked No | 53c | 25.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…224dbacked Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4498…c984backed No | 54c | 22.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on February 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 45°F or below on February 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 56°F or higher on February 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on February 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on February 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on February 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.