Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on February 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0c1027669d25f36a2ec7cb8a3a8c0a784d5f730026efd6b24c1483de3fc0a21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 50c | 1,521$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.94 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 50c | 939.78$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.14 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfe82…7056backed Yes | 49c | 511.34$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.09 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5953…57e6backed No | 70c | 282.02$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.27 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 37c | 235.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.5 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 125.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6622…e28bbacked Yes | 60c | 116$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11de…4e67backed Yes | 42c | 114.78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.62 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Yes | 52c | 98.92$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.48 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 29c | 87.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.18 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9642…a6a4backed No | 42c | 79.76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff50…b446backed Yes | 57c | 79.75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 61c | 78.83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 59c | 63.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 46c | 60.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked Yes | 52c | 52.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10e5…06cdbacked No | 77c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1584…71b6backed No | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 54c | 47.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87b9…3246backed Yes | 35c | 47.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa8…21dfbacked No | 73c | 41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd64c…2c13backed No | 57c | 40.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a63…e745backed Yes | 64c | 39.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…a226backed Yes | 48c | 38.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf911…8d8ebacked No | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x666f…9ddfbacked No | 57c | 26.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 107 | 26.2%28 W · 79 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9736…64b8backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…42a2backed No | 55c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1786…6974backed Yes | 58c | 20.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a99…0ed4backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 77c | 18.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…650ebacked No | 72c | 15.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on February 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 45°F or below on February 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 56°F or higher on February 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on February 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on February 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on February 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.