MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. San Diego Padres
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd527ad36e23fad2931c017ff3b8b71e91b6f93a4a91c7a9654417bc6ab5cd84a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof Kansas City Royals, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,636 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe278…b608backed Kansas City Royals | 45c | 999.98$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.99 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked San Diego Padres | 55c | 706.2$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.41 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed San Diego Padres | 56c | 504$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.16 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Kansas City Royals | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.54 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Kansas City Royals | 45c | 318$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.23 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6330…1444backed San Diego Padres | 6c | 311.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Kansas City Royals | 48c | 299.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.99 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Kansas City Royals | 47c | 278.7$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.53 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked San Diego Padres | 58c | 276.01$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.09 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked San Diego Padres | 55c | 239$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.45 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked San Diego Padres | 6c | 219.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed San Diego Padres | 52c | 168.61$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.46 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x277c…e529backed Kansas City Royals | 48c | 164.96$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed San Diego Padres | 55c | 145.45$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b71…80ecbacked San Diego Padres | 52c | 144.23$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed San Diego Padres | 53c | 142.3$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked San Diego Padres | 55c | 110$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed San Diego Padres | 52c | 105.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Kansas City Royals | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 352 | 45.5%160 W · 192 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 86.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e72…c55fbacked Kansas City Royals | 43c | 86.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.48 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed San Diego Padres | 55c | 83.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked San Diego Padres | 57c | 71.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Kansas City Royals | 58c | 61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Kansas City Royals | 43c | 58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Kansas City Royals | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…dd4fbacked Kansas City Royals | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed San Diego Padres | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 370 | 48.9%181 W · 189 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…77e9backed Kansas City Royals | 47c | 37.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed San Diego Padres | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7923…1c18backed San Diego Padres | 63c | 29.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Kansas City Royals | 42c | 23.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Kansas City Royals | 52c | 23.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked San Diego Padres | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.