MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd53d0fd2db93ccaf9242b874921c56c6858c28ee643bada90d4bceadffe74a2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Washington Nationals, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Washington Nationals | 38c | 1,011$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.12 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ff…6c51backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 901$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.62 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 34c | 462.5$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.25 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Washington Nationals | 37c | 379.13$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.85 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 300$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Washington Nationals | 38c | 291.97$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.02 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Washington Nationals | 46c | 273.41$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.96 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8854…882dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 263$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.06 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Washington Nationals | 58c | 226.1$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.3 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…e019backed Washington Nationals | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 36.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x854f…c78dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Washington Nationals | 66c | 26.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb215…b819backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 21.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Washington Nationals | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c77…bde7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.