La Liga · resolved market
Will UD Almería win on 2025-12-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5835448da059b63a06dadb2ea28ab1153a4f9d918b06ca0bbbf0aa98928ad9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed No | 44c | 22,288$9,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,505.09 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 56c | 20,000$11,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,200 | 172 | 48.8%84 W · 88 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 57c | 7,000$3,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,990 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 52c | 2,943$1,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,409.17 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 43c | 2,345$1,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,332.81 | 1,018 | 53.1%541 W · 477 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4e…3309backed Yes | 47c | 1,074$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Yes | 58c | 646.45$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373 | 262 | 42.7%112 W · 150 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes | 56c | 540$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.4 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3a…68a9backed Yes | 48c | 530.58$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.68 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 50c | 467.29$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.38 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…cc6cbacked No | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 53c | 432.58$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.31 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8819…4cf5backed Yes | 56c | 414.29$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fe…7365backed Yes | 48c | 413.96$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked No | 44c | 341$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.96 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 56c | 227.52$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.41 | 559 | 41.1%230 W · 329 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 44c | 225$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 15c | 211.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 218 | 42.7%93 W · 125 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 136 | 26.5%36 W · 100 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 49c | 197.09$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.39 | 128 | 21.1%27 W · 101 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x693c…a7edbacked Yes | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 42c | 193.17$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.13 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4eb…5857backed Yes | 22c | 186.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 50c | 170.95$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.97 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 58c | 165.17$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.53 | 299 | 46.5%139 W · 160 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab0f…bde4backed Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 42c | 104$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 836 | 50.7%424 W · 412 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc16b…8404backed No | 44c | 101$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.56 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Yes | 57c | 97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6981…8ac5backed Yes | 43c | 79.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…e6f5backed No | 44c | 79$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497e…1161backed Yes | 45c | 60.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 75 | 73.3%55 W · 20 L | +20.9wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 43c | 47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 489 | 34.4%168 W · 321 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x293f…5789backed Yes | 56c | 40.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked No | 42c | 39.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 169 | 26%44 W · 125 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…710fbacked Yes | 51c | 35.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9718…9546backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 43c | 31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 791 | 33%261 W · 530 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85cc…4895backed Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0435…906bbacked Yes | 49c | 28.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eda…1847backed No | 58c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dd…ea96backed No | 44c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will UD Almería win on 2025-12-14?this page
- Will Burgos CF win on 2025-12-14?Yes won
- Will UD Almería vs. Burgos CF end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.