CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - LORGAR RANKINGS Closed Qualifier Group D
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd59a977dbaa685a7d26693e346055853b60f8a630f3ac0e24602adf0ea9019cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ASTRALof ASTRAL, HyperSpirit
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,115
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,115 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked ASTRAL | 47c | 1,562$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.87 | 844 | 54.3%458 W · 386 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed ASTRAL | 52c | 1,306$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.56 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed HyperSpirit | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa16b…b541backed ASTRAL | 49c | 391$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.41 | 434 | 55.1%239 W · 195 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…7a7bbacked HyperSpirit | 47c | 373.87$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.72 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef21…3dc9backed HyperSpirit | 53c | 316.98$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490b…eec9backed HyperSpirit | 47c | 273.4$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.5 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked HyperSpirit | 49c | 250.97$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.98 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c8…a9ffbacked HyperSpirit | 47c | 243.28$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.34 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked ASTRAL | 51c | 231.99$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.73 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…3e35backed HyperSpirit | 52c | 214.01$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.3 | 316 | 42.1%133 W · 183 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x523e…3128backed HyperSpirit | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.93 | 155 | 44.5%69 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91af…4794backed HyperSpirit | 26c | 192.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed HyperSpirit | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 1,146 | 43.5%499 W · 647 L | -17.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b26…c9afbacked HyperSpirit | 51c | 149$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 134 | 60.4%81 W · 53 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8359…5944backed HyperSpirit | 28c | 135$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 697 | 32%223 W · 474 L | -46.0wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9810…b0debacked HyperSpirit | 49c | 129$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.91 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed ASTRAL | 48c | 124.41$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.69 | 611 | 54.7%334 W · 277 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed ASTRAL | 51c | 122$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.78 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ad…2e4ebacked HyperSpirit | 49c | 122$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a84…e21abacked HyperSpirit | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed ASTRAL | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa442…dca3backed HyperSpirit | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 302 | 54.3%164 W · 138 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x251c…4f52backed ASTRAL | 64c | 91.93$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd816…a60ebacked HyperSpirit | 51c | 82.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6722…865fbacked ASTRAL | 73c | 68.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d68…21c2backed HyperSpirit | 47c | 61.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8614…ffc6backed HyperSpirit | 48c | 58.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7cdd…73b5backed HyperSpirit | 50c | 42.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x931c…bf4bbacked HyperSpirit | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 323 | 51.4%166 W · 157 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…ae72backed HyperSpirit | 51c | 34.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 288 | 52.1%150 W · 138 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d7…ec13backed HyperSpirit | 53c | 28.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked ASTRAL | 50c | 27.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed ASTRAL | 73c | 26.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d34…5cf7backed HyperSpirit | 48c | 26.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaee4…471fbacked HyperSpirit | 52c | 25.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 357 | 52.9%189 W · 168 L | +22.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed ASTRAL | 49c | 22.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 872 | 44.8%391 W · 481 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac5f…cd03backed ASTRAL | 76c | 15.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.