Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5da6a26701082577a468f023842915a889b8027daa204b57b0be97b116d9b6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2602…0ff3backed No | 0c | 11,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 63c | 508.65$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.13 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 52c | 354.8$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.4 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 4c | 342.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 14c | 188.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 65c | 153.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 119.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.86 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 36c | 110.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.82 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 61c | 107.01$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.58 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 26c | 101.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…eb3dbacked Yes | 13c | 99.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.9 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dc…c36fbacked Yes | 50c | 94.69$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 21c | 94.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 876 | 24.2%212 W · 664 L | -39.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 28c | 93.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.51 | 1,515 | 15.4%234 W · 1,281 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 21c | 85.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.93 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe776…ad55backed Yes | 33c | 76.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 72.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.7 | 3,916 | 23.2%910 W · 3,006 L | +124.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 38c | 70.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 52c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed No | 49c | 66.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 45.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 56c | 41.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 60c | 32.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 36c | 32.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 41c | 29.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed No | 70c | 24.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed No | 67c | 17.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 72c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 17°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 18°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.