Mls · resolved market
Will FC Dallas win on 2026-04-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5f800ec5dcf7d10be58dae87023d429e53a645144e16d9142de650d73f1b1db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 13c | 2,781$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.65 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 13c | 2,583$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.13 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 16c | 2,174$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 12c | 1,731$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.7 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Yes | 14c | 820.13$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.82 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa5…63afbacked Yes | 6c | 658.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Yes | 5c | 493.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 12c | 429.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19d1…d309backed Yes | 17c | 284.54$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea87…8066backed Yes | 19c | 250.37$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb6…544dbacked Yes | 21c | 207.29$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 79c | 172.62$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Yes | 13c | 145.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84bb…25d3backed Yes | 15c | 135.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Yes | 13c | 123.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 13c | 120.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 17c | 119.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Yes | 13c | 100.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Yes | 13c | 80.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 16c | 78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…675cbacked Yes | 19c | 73.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a03…279abacked Yes | 20c | 71.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Dallas win on 2026-04-25?this page
- Will Seattle Sounders FC vs. FC Dallas end in a draw?No won
- Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-04-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.