Mls · resolved market
Will Seattle Sounders FC vs. FC Dallas end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa815989fb4f042145e830f71ce7327339d24e0bb36ac966a3682e5c05866d2d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,109
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,109 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 22c | 11,111$2,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,444.41 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed No | 78c | 4,781$3,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.73 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e4…4f8abacked Yes | 18c | 2,641$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 78c | 2,174$1,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.18 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Yes | 14c | 1,688$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.64 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed No | 78c | 1,265$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.33 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 19c | 256.39$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 78c | 253.03$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.67 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked No | 78c | 236.83$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 21c | 226.32$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 17c | 192.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa52e…453fbacked Yes | 23c | 178.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…9fe7backed Yes | 21c | 167.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked No | 76c | 104.29$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 80 | 65%52 W · 28 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec45…6c6dbacked No | 79c | 99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 23c | 83.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 14c | 80.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd6…d9f7backed Yes | 16c | 79.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda2…ba18backed Yes | 24c | 71.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 18c | 57.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked No | 78c | 39.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…17bdbacked No | 78c | 37.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 79c | 36.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed No | 79c | 27.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 77c | 27.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 78c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 76c | 23.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…2d8fbacked No | 79c | 18.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1412…8417backed No | 77c | 14.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Seattle Sounders FC vs. FC Dallas end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Dallas win on 2026-04-25?No won
- Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-04-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.