Champions League · resolved market
Will RB Leipzig beat Sturm Graz?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5f991861be925b30628257b847dfb35feb339a23a086fccc371bcd89635c92a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 53c | 9,684$5,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,131.47 | 210 | 37.1%78 W · 132 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 47c | 5,232$2,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,772.99 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked No | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590 | 123 | 59.3%73 W · 50 L | +12.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +16%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf00f…711abacked No | 48c | 779.97$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.58 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 46c | 734.59$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.24 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 47c | 640$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.2 | 449 | 55.7%250 W · 199 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd88…1ca6backed Yes | 52c | 504.24$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.2 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…2760backed Yes | 40c | 345.94$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.93 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83e2…ce08backed Yes | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 47c | 284.39$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.96 | 469 | 56.5%265 W · 204 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked No | 47c | 185.8$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.37 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 65c | 177.9$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.76 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4d…5105backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f6…9538backed Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4f…9917backed No | 48c | 69.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d80…cd30backed Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a06…d20ebacked Yes | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…2858backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd254…d207backed Yes | 52c | 43.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x482c…e46bbacked No | 48c | 43.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x923f…4c93backed Yes | 51c | 42.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x816e…af7fbacked No | 49c | 42.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc0…243dbacked No | 48c | 41.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29e5…cdecbacked Yes | 51c | 40.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x251e…f2d2backed No | 48c | 40.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4d…3578backed Yes | 52c | 40.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.9wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x61db…a32abacked Yes | 52c | 34.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2b…b0afbacked No | 49c | 30.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba69…903bbacked Yes | 52c | 28.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be3…fb8cbacked Yes | 52c | 28.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…ac6ebacked Yes | 52c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda66…339abacked No | 48c | 23.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +86%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc9…0864backed No | 49c | 23.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17c8…5033backed No | 48c | 21.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will RB Leipzig beat Sturm Graz?this page
- Will Sturm Graz beat RB Leipzig?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.